Recruiting never stops. Neither do your questions.
And if we didn’t get to your question, don’t be discouraged! We will be addressing some on “Stars Matter,” our weekly recruiting podcast that (we promise) is coming back soon!
Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.
Can Ohio State still win via the Jim Tressel-era “Ohio recruiting” initiative or is there no going back after the Urban Meyer national experience? — Perry E.
This is an Ohio State question but there is national relevance. I think the answer is the same for every program. Let’s cover all angles of this.
Advertisement
A few years after the Jim Tressel era came to an end and Urban Meyer was in the thick of things, I took a look at this question. The year was 2015 and Meyer’s recruiting approach was significantly more national than that of any of his predecessors. It may not seem like a lot, but at the time Ohio State was taking two fewer in-state players per class, on average, than Tressel ever did. Extrapolate that over a five-year period, and you have 10 fewer Ohioans on an Ohio State roster. That number continued to increase during the Meyer era as the Buckeyes became more successful in attracting talent on a national scope. I imagine the data from eight additional years of Ohio State recruiting classes makes that number even more lopsided.
Why? Because it’s a necessity to compete for national titles.
Troy Smith was a late add as an in-state prospect in the Class of 2002 and went on to win the Heisman while playing for Jim Tressel. (G.N. Lowrance / Getty Images)There has been some talk around Ohio State — in 2015 and even now — that the Buckeyes need more Ohio-born players on their roster. Those kids grow up loving Ohio State and understanding the rivalry with Michigan in a way that cannot just be explained. You could make the argument that Ohio State’s program needs a certain number of Ohio players on the roster for the team to just “get it.” I’ll listen to that argument. But there is no way you could convince me Ohio State could win a national title in 2023 or beyond signing as many Ohio players as Tressel did.
Tressel’s 15-member Ohio State class in 2005 featured 10 Ohio players. In 2003, 13 of his 16 signees were from Ohio. That would be a recipe for disaster in today’s game, and it’s partly the reason why Ohio State developed an SEC problem toward the end of his tenure.
Now you have to add in the fact that Ohio usually doesn’t have the baseline level of elite players necessary to field a national title-caliber team. It’s a good state for talent but not comparable to the top states. You also have to consider that the teams at the top of the 247Sports Team Talent Composite are far more stacked with elite players than they were in the early 2000s. Ohio’s talent has diminished, and the best teams are deeper than they ever have been. I say this a year after Alabama signed nine five-star prospects in a single recruiting class.
Advertisement
There are only a few teams that could predominately recruit their own state and get the job done — the Texas teams, the Florida teams, the California teams and probably Georgia. But that’s a difficult burden to put on a head coach because Florida, California and Texas not only have multiple Power 5 programs within the state lines but also because every other program recruits those states as well. So how do teams in that state combat that? By recruiting nationally. And around and around we go.
Geography is always going to be important in college football recruiting. Ohio State is always going to emphasize Ohio and pluck the best players from the Buckeye State. That is a foundational piece to Ryan Day’s plan, as it was for Meyer. But can that be the bulk of the plan? Unfortunately, no.
Name a single national title contender that recruits predominately from its own state without national recruiting success. That doesn’t exist.
Even when Lincoln Riley took the job at USC and it seemed as though he’d take West Coast recruiting by storm, part of that analysis was always going to incorporate his ability to pluck kids nationally. USC has a ceiling if the majority of its players are Californians, especially considering that Oregon and other programs have so much success recruiting that state. USC responded by signing guys like Tackett Curtis (Louisiana), Duce Robinson (Arizona), Braylan Shelby (Texas) and Quinten Joyner (Texas) in the Class of 2023. There were seven top-150 players in the 247Sports Composite in USC’s 2023 class, and four were from out of state.
Maybe LSU could get away with it more than anyone else given it is a national power in a deep state for talent, but even if Louisiana tends to have more top-line players than Ohio, neither Ohio State nor LSU can realistically survive feasting on only in-state guys.
Advertisement
Wrapping back around to Ohio State, I have seen the notion that the rivalry has gotten away from Day and his team because there isn’t enough Ohio flavor on his roster. Maybe there is something to that. But if Ohio State wants to keep going punch for punch with Georgia like it did in the College Football Playoff last year, it better have guys like C.J. Stroud (California), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Pennsylvania), Emeka Egbuka (Washington), Lathan Ransom (Arizona), Steele Chambers (Georgia), Ronnie “Rocket” Hickman (New Jersey) and many others on the field.
Ari, what is Brian Kelly doing? Not a single five-star prospect committed and it seems like LSU is in on the “race” for only one (Colin Simmons). Sure, he has done a great job recruiting in Louisiana, but this is LSU. You need/should recruit everywhere and get a bunch of five-stars. I have the impression that he is taking advantage of LSU’s location to put less effort recruiting than he did at Notre Dame. — Rodrigo A.
I promise I didn’t plan this segue. Sometimes the stars, pun intended, just align.
After you asked this question, I took a deep look at LSU’s class, and it occurred to me that the Tigers may sign nine of the top 10 (and the top nine) prospects in their own state in the 2024 cycle. If LSU pulls that off, that has to be the highest conversion rate for any program in the modern era of recruiting.
Yet, here is an LSU fan who is displeased with the Tigers’ class. Why? Because even though Kelly is dominating recruiting on his own turf, which we all said was a must when he was hired, there is a lack of star power on the national front. This is particularly of concern for LSU given what Alabama and Georgia are doing outside their own states.
Is this fear rational for Rodrigo? Part of me says yes, part of me says no. At first glance, I’m blown away by how Kelly and his staff have managed to recruit the state of Louisiana, and that efficiency long term is going to pay big dividends for the Tigers. But when you take a deeper look, only two of the top 10 players in the state of Louisiana are ranked in the top 100 nationally. That’s not going to get it done for LSU, and that’s the reason I can sense panic in the question.
However, it’s hard to jump to conclusions with a single class with five months to go before signing day. Yes, LSU has only one top-100 player currently committed. And yes, there are no five-star prospects. But you have to look at their board. The top-rated player in the state is defensive lineman Dominick McKinley of Lafayette Acadiana, a fringe five-star prospect. The other is four-star cornerback Wardell Mack of Marrero John Ehret, who ranks No. 115. You can probably pencil in both of those prospects as future LSU commits.
Then, on the national front, the Tigers are in the thick of it with five-star defensive end Colin Simmons of Duncanville (Texas) High, the No. 8 overall player in the country. You pointed that out. By the time this class is done, it could wind up with five or six top-100 players and finish in the top 10. Also, who knows what else is going to happen in the next few months of craziness? LSU has a way of making stuff happen.
Advertisement
Is this an ideal class for keeping up with Alabama and Georgia? No. As I stated in the first question, there needs to be a healthy number of elite national prospects in all of your recruiting classes to win a national title. But if there is any program in the country that can survive with a strong nucleus of in-state players, it’s LSU.
Is this year’s class reason to think Kelly doesn’t know what he’s doing or that he’s putting in less effort than he did at Notre Dame? Also, no.
Lincoln Riley said that he could get players at USC that just weren’t possible at Oklahoma. He was outrecruited last year by Brent Venables and while it is still early, he is on pace to get outrecruited again. What gives? — Scott C.
When you look at USC on paper, you’d think that statement is true. Being the top brand on the West Coast in a state that is loaded with talent is a nice starting point for any coach, right? In theory, I’d think that the recruiting ceiling would be higher in California than it would be in Norman, Okla., just based on geography.
Does that mean that USC is automatically going to outrecruit Oklahoma? No way.
What is the better brand in college football right now? For those Oklahoma fans who hate that I said I’d much rather live in Southern California than Norman last year, let me extend an olive branch: I think Oklahoma’s brand is stronger in college football than USC’s at the moment. If Riley is going to turn USC into a football juggernaut as a West Coast Big Ten team, he has a lot of work to do in the realm of talent accumulation.
It is very easy to discount Oklahoma’s presence in Texas because the Sooners aren’t technically in the state. If you wanted to make a case that Oklahoma’s proximity to Texas is every bit as advantageous as USC’s proximity to SoCal players, I’d listen. That’s why I’m not shocked to see five-star running back Taylor Tatum of Longview (Texas) High commit to the Sooners over the Trojans last week.
I know Oklahoma fans strongly dislike Riley for leaving the way he did and taking Caleb Williams and others with him. If I were an OU fan, I’d hate him.
Advertisement
The best revenge, though, is prosperity. And say what you want about Venables’ first season at Oklahoma, but there is no question he has the ball rolling.
GO DEEPER
Brent Venables vows to return OU to national prominence: Will his roster flip work?
Riley is recruiting worse than I thought he would at USC so far and Venables is recruiting better. Will that be the case long term? Who knows?
It made sense to me why Riley would bolt to USC. Did you see his house? But I don’t think it’s an absolute certainty that he is going to be more successful in L.A. than he was in Norman. Look what Riley did at Oklahoma with the Heisman Trophy winners and the College Football Playoff appearances.
Doing better than that is going to take mega classes. USC hasn’t done that yet under his leadership.
What are some prominent examples of a single missed recruitment or two costing a coach or coordinator their job or at least landing them on the hot seat? — Phillip H.
The one that immediately jumped out was when Quinn Ewers flipped to Ohio State from Texas. That wasn’t the reason Tom Herman got fired at Texas, but the feeling around him and the program was never the same after that. Ewers flipped to Ohio State at the end of April. Herman got one final season and then was fired.
Yes, you can make the case that Herman was dismissed for other reasons. No coach gets fired because he lost out on a single recruit. But that Ewers flip felt like the death blow to me.
(Top photo of Brian Kelly: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57k3Bob3FiaHxzfJFsZmlvX2eCcL7EnKmuoaSeu6h5zqGgqGWjqa61sYylqq5ln6C5orTOpphmraOYfA%3D%3D